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Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Discussions cover national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"The Irish government must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."

Request for Broader Debate

Westminster should engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."